LED lighting: is it time for another dream?

Once coveted capital markets LED industry, is experiencing a few years ago the big expansion of the bitter fruit. Reported that in 2012 and the first quarter of this year, the relevant listed companies are not in the interests of income increased embarrassment.

However, due to the trend of demand and policy to pick up significantly, the recent brokerage researcher once again full of enthusiasm for the sector. "LED lighting, the time is still a dream? This is a common market doubts.

Civilian price stimulus demand

According to statistics, the 25 listed companies included in the LED, 2012 total operating income of $48 billion 409 million, an increase of 9%, the total net profit of $3 billion 933 million, down by 18%. In the first quarter of this year, the 25 LED key listed companies total operating income of $9 billion 888 million, an increase of 12%, the total net profit of $719 million, down by 3%.

However, the LED industry began to pick up signs. It is understood that the recent local governments have been clear LED lighting promotion program. It is expected that in 2013 the amount of Guangdong LED street lamp installation will grow by nearly 4 times to 1 million 100 thousand, Shenzhen plans to increase the amount of more than 10 times this year, more than 200 thousand. At the same time, the introduction of Jiangxi energy saving emission reduction plan in 12th Five-Year, plans to promote LED outdoor lighting products more than 100 thousand lights, indoor lighting 3 million, Fujian outdoor lighting promotion rules will also be introduced in the near future.

In accordance with past experience, the local government's LED lighting business volume is generally taken by the strength of the listed companies, which also enhance the profitability of the relevant companies. Shanghai, a researcher said. More importantly, in the market view, the price of LED lighting products no longer high, but also directly stimulate demand surge. A researcher was informed that in June this year before and after the investigation, NVC may launch the first round of price war, other manufacturers such as Yankon are likely to follow up. Leading enterprises to "price butcher's knife", the researcher expects the price of LED lighting products in the second half of the decline is expected to reach 30%-40%. This also means that, with 18W LED lamp as an example (equivalent to 30W T8 energy-saving lamp), domestic mainstream channel retail price is expected from now 70 yuan -80 yuan / only dropped to 40-50 yuan / only, while the 30W brand energy-saving lamps in the price of 20 yuan -30 yuan / only, which has entered the second half of the price of LED lamp energy saving lamp 2 times the price range, which is called the "sweet spot". In the light of the price, the market new clothes, replacement demand is expected to increase rapidly.

The researchers warned that from the beginning of June can be closely observed LED lighting products terminal price and demand changes, the domestic LED lighting market is expected to start in the 3 quarter of this year.

Beware of the black swan

Aforementioned researcher stressed that the current LED lighting market penetration of less than 3%, even if the price to stimulate demand doubled, the scale is not large. However, given the growth of the plate relative to the rest of the industry is more certain, he proposed to increase the allocation of the callback process.

It is worth mentioning that the global MOCVD (LED wafer production equipment manufacturers Veeco required) before the release of news, Veeco recently seen from Chinese market first in 2 years to see urgent orders, display Chinese grain factory again to restart the MOCVD machine purchase plan. This allows practitioners quite nervous, that this year from China's capital expenditure situation also can not see the phenomenon of large-scale expansion of production capacity expansion, but the capacity expansion of Chinese companies will affect the overall supply and demand situation of the LED industry. Once the expansion of Chinese companies to expand production pace, will once again return to the temperature of the LED industry variables.

In addition, the letter phi LED industry investment institutions are still so many sequelae of fear. From the beginning of the second half of last year, was traced to illegal information disclosure Jiawei shares, South photoelectric, FSL, Sanan optoelectronics, KingSun and many other LED related companies, and the Commission was punished. Strong response to the market, the company's share price affected by the impact of a significant decline, resulting in poor performance of the entire LED sector.

Some investors said, these listed companies have been questioned, many have not fully come out from the negative, and even face the huge compensation shareholders rights. Even if the industry prospects, but also beware of the black swan again. "