Forecast the trend of LED lighting industry in mainland China in 2012

In 2012, multiple pressure release, in the global production capacity, market demand slowdown, government subsidy policy is not clear under the new stage China LED industry will enter the industry structure change and competition mode of reforming.

First, the gradual release of upstream production capacity in 2012, epitaxial chip price pressures will continue to improve the rate of localization, the mainland competition intensifies the spread of high-power chips.

2011, the total number of mainland MOCVD reached 720 units, according to the current company after the introduction of the equipment to adjust the plan, is expected in 2012 MOCVD installed capacity will be maintained at around 300 level. In 2011, mainland enterprises chip revenue growth of 30%, reaching 6 billion 500 million yuan, but far less than MOCVD growth rate of 106%, which reflects the mainland chip production capacity failed to give full play to the 2012 price pressure will continue epitaxial chip.

2011, the mainland GaN chip capacity growth of 12000kk/ months, but the capacity utilization of less than 50%, the annual output of only 71 billion, but the localization rate reached more than 70%. At the same time, the mainland has been through the small chip chip integrated to achieve a breakthrough in lighting applications; high power lighting chip 20% of the market share is still low, but with the development of innovation and improving the quality of the products, the overall trend is, chip share increased slightly, foreign chip price is expected to exceed 6000RMB/K.

Although at the end of 2011 LED market increment slowdown, but there are from Japan and Taiwan region upstream project settled Chinese, which also caused the competition trend in 2012, LED epitaxial chips, in international macroeconomic situation turmoil, mainland upstream industry investment will be more cautious.

Secondly, the 2012 package, high-quality enterprises will be more integration of industry resources, product structure to highlight LED, SMD LED, incremental profits to maintain the overall market trend, in cooperation with the upstream and downstream integration has become a new mode of packaging enterprise breakthrough.

In 2011, LED packaging companies to nationstar, REFOND, honglitronic led gradually force, have entered the market in 2012, capital and packaging business cooperation will be more closely and active.

2011, the overall size of China's LED packaging industry reached 28 billion 500 million yuan, representing an increase of $25 billion in 2010, the output from the year of 2010 to only 182 billion, an increase of only $133 billion 500 million, an increase of 36%. 2012, the mainland packaging production will remain above 30% growth, but due to the profitability of the upstream and downstream costs and demand squeeze, resulting in overall output growth will not exceed 20%.

From the product structure, highlighting the LED value reached 26 billion 500 million yuan, accounting for more than 90% of total sales package LED SMD LED package; the most significant growth, has become a mainstream product, the encapsulation of LED in 2012, SMD and LED highlight the proportion will have greatly improved.

LED packaging enterprises as the industrial chain of intermediate links, often need to bear from the vertical and horizontal two aspects of the competition, although in 2011 the capital involved added some LED packaging companies compete, however, the integration of breakout is still a burden falls on the shoulders of the packaging enterprises. According to the author was informed that the current packaging enterprises have launched a number of cooperation with the mainland's traditional lighting manufacturers, joint investment, cooperation and construction of the model may become a breakthrough in this new attempt on the road.

In 2012, LED applications will maintain rapid growth, lighting, landscape, the backlight is still pulling the growth of three carriages, LED lighting applications further from outdoor lighting to room, the international market demand and policy guidance, will become a key factor in the growth rate of LED lighting. There are a lot of variables in the competition pattern of LED lighting application, and the enterprises with capital, scale, technology, brand and market channel advantage become the main body of industrial integration.

2011, the overall size of China's LED application reached 121 billion yuan, the overall growth rate of up to 34%, is the fastest growing sectors of the semiconductor lighting industry chain. Among them, the growth of lighting applications is very obvious, the overall share has accounted for 25% of the entire application, the market share of the largest application areas, backlighting, landscape and other applications also maintained a rapid growth.

According to the "ten city lights" pilot city survey statistics, the 37 pilot city demonstration project has been implemented in more than 2000, more than 4 million 200 thousand of the application of LED lighting lamp, power saving more than 400 million degrees. In 2012, LED outdoor lighting will gradually realize the transition to guide the market leading from the government, in view of the exemplary role of "ten city lights", at present, many of the city are increasing LED lights (including tunnel lamp) to replace the installed capacity, in addition, every year 2 million new lamp installation, to provide outdoor lighting enterprises the broader market space and development opportunities.

2011, although the industry is looking forward to the LED product subsidy policy has not been introduced, but the LED indoor lighting market prospects have been recognized. 2012, the full introduction of LED subsidy policy is only a matter of time.