Chip prices fell LED industry how to layout?

Days ago, GF Securities held "2011 LED industry seminar", the experts and business executives: Deputy Secretary General of alliance national semiconductor lighting project, Mr. Geng Bo, nationstar director, deputy general manager Dr. Yu Binhai changelight, chief financial officer, Secretary of the board of directors Mr. Ye Sunyi attended the meeting, and in 2011 the LED industry is discussed. The main contents and views of the meeting are summarized as follows:

1, the next few years will maintain rapid growth in the LED industry

Cost price in recent 10 years LED increases every year, the LED light effect than traditional light sources, lighting comprehensive costs are lower than the incandescent lamp, halogen lamp and CFL downlight, 2012 will be equivalent to energy-saving lamps. 2015 LED product prices are likely to be reduced to 1/5 in 2010, when the general lighting market penetration rate reached 50% in 2020 will account for more than 75% of the lighting market.

Current global industry competition is the United States, Japan and Europe, South Korea and Taiwan, a situation of tripartite confrontation, spare no effort to catch up. At present, all the countries in the strategic plan, the Japanese government subsidies to promote substantially through the LED lighting, Japan is expected to 2015 replacement rate reached 50%, in 2020 the substitution rate reached 100%; South Korea in 2015 to ensure that the 30% general lighting market.

China LED industry output value reached 120 billion yuan, more than 4 thousand enterprises in the past 5 years, the average growth rate of 35%, more than 40% in 2010. Relevant statistics show that Guangdong LED output value reached 83 billion 500 million yuan. Expected output in the next few years the average growth rate of more than 35%. China has made remarkable achievements in the research and development of key technologies, especially in the packaging products have their own characteristics, there are great breakthroughs in the application. Patent applications, the relevant LED patent applications more than 28912, of which the packaging and application of patents accounted for nearly 70%; national testing platform has 6, and another 3 are being prepared.

2, LED industry investment structural overheating trend

2010 traditional lighting industry output value reached 290 billion yuan in 2010, LED general lighting output value of 18 billion yuan, growth of 140% in 2009 7 billion 500 million yuan, accounting for the size of LED market 21%, 7 percentage points higher than the 14% in 2009, the LED street lamp, tunnel lamp, the growth rate of more than 100%. Union statistics domestic LED street lamp has more than 1 million 600 thousand. 2010 LED market penetration of less than 1%, is expected in 2015 will reach 30%. But strictly speaking, the general lighting market is mainly the government in the push, the real market has not yet started, but to replace the traditional lighting is the trend.

2009 domestic investment reached 20 billion, in 2010 reached 30 billion, investment is mainly concentrated in the upstream industry chain link. Domestic investment is very large. Some solar companies have also invested, GCL Group invested $2 billion 500 million, imported 500 sets of MOCVD LED base construction in Suzhou.

The number of MOCVD equipment 2010, plans to add 09 years to the global MOCVD supply of the 50% three year plan, 1466 new units, the sum of more than 09 years of global MOCVD equipment, according to the plan, three years after the epitaxial wafer capacity will be 10-15 times in 2009. It should be noted that, when the demand for the industry, the number of these devices may still be in short supply, but the market has not yet come up, these devices will not be superfluous to say. Investment has a structural overheating trend, more than 1/3 of traditional lighting companies have entered or planned to enter.

3, China LED industry opportunities and challenges

Due to Chinese based on traditional lighting and materials in the mainstream technology to master, China may become the LED industry. China's impact on the market at the national level and volatility is more obvious.

Domestic LED industry opportunities and challenges exist at the same time. The opportunity: 1) traditional and emerging market with huge business opportunities, 2) driven by the construction industry to the lighting industry is more powerful, 3) and provides a good opportunity for energy-saving emission reduction and sustainable development for the LED industry, 4) the policies to promote the growth of the industry, which represents in the semiconductor demonstration project for the industry last year is significant; challenges: 1) developed countries already have introduced the demonstration and application promotion policy, 2) developed countries have released incandescent lamps and high energy consumption, the traditional lighting lamps ban restrictions, Chinese also need to come up to 3, in addition to the government level) worried about the progress of the industry too fast will influence the employment situation of the traditional lighting industry, but the transformation needs to be in accordance with market rules, the policy can only play a push around 4) and the international giant into the strong requires us to accelerate the integration of downstream applications, 5) standard patent has become the focus of international competition, 6) not aggregated distribution of industry resources, local economic development is China, to limit the local situation is difficult; the upstream product partial in the low-end, there is a disadvantage in terms of talents, 7) industry support and cooperation is not enough. Technical support is not enough, the development environment is not perfect. Relatively low level of investment, product homogeneity is more serious, standards and certification and other market testing mechanism to improve.

4, 2011 will be the first year of LED general lighting market

New market prospects, the new market in the use of LED has higher economic value and environmental benefits (30000 hours mean 8 hours a day for 10 years).2010-2015 forecast, 2010 nianguang efficiency reached 60lm/w, reached 100lm/W in 2015, in 2010 the price of 70 yuan, to 2015 can be reduced to 10 yuan the level of. 2013 is expected to decline in the cost of inflection point, that is to say that this point is a large-scale promotion of LED turn