2014 LED industry speculation: the first half is not worried about the demand, the second half do not worry about supply

Last week, EPISTAR, Everlight, canyuan, Dongbei LED companies such as chairman of collective optimistic for 2014 LED industry boom, the expected LED from the pile up in excess of requirement.

Need not worry about the first half

Confidence in the first half of the demand is mainly based on the start of the North American market as well as the lighting giant's coping strategies. According to DOE data, as of 2012, the North American incandescent bulb accounted for the proportion of about 55%, and by the end of 2012, the penetration rate of LED is less than 1%, so the United States from 2014 New Year's Day ban white LED lighting to create a space; 2013 CREE was the first to provoke a price war makes the original lighting giant Philips, GE, OSRAM and so on in the passive situation, in order to maintain market share, Philips lighting giants have made a very aggressive sales strategy, manufacturers on 2014 shipments growth rate in the first half of the preset 80%-100% lighting giants have enough power to fight for the LED lighting market, which led to the rapid growth of the demand of LED.

Do not worry about the second half of the supply

The current industry in January is not short off-season based on the circumstances, the market offers more optimistic expectations for LED chip supply shortages and rising prices, but the price of the chip shortage situation at least in the first half of 2014 to see: Although the industry estimates, an optoelectronic EPISTAR will finish Veeco and Aixtron new MOCVD testing in the 2 quarter, and new type of equipment more cost-effective considerations based on 1-2 in the quarter will reduce or even stop the procurement of MOCVD equipment, but due to the optimistic expectations of the LED lighting, some enterprises have completed the expansion at the end of 2013, is expected to be considered three capacity release, BDO, 2014 1-2 quarter of the domestic equipment at least 60-80 the productivity will release, therefore optimistic expectations for the first half chip price is stable, instead because the 1-2 quarter of the purchase of equipment power down, the first half Will be the final release of the upstream capacity of the second half of the LED chip, the relationship between supply and demand will become more benign, even the beginning of the 3 quarter, LED demand is still lower than expected there is no need to worry about the impact of chip enterprises; international supply chain: the biggest benefit due to manufacturers on the supply chain to control strictly, generally from the factory to the bulk procurement after a few years, at present, can enter the international supply chain enterprises are not many, Yankon and other traditional lighting manufacturers is the main benefit of enterprises, and the LED chip through the white light leading Sanan optoelectronics can bypass the electrical patent barriers, is expected to pass for canyuan OEM to enter the domestic market because of the international supply chain; business environment lead to expulsion good money in the traditional lighting times bad money, so that the quality of most companies can only do the export market, while LED lighting facing the situation has improved, but still bad money drives out good money However, it is difficult to avoid, only the channel brand enterprises can enjoy the benefits brought by brand premium.