When China's LED capacity to become the world's first

With global LED manufacturers will IMS research analyst every quarter, ask the back 4 to 6 quarters of MOVCD equipment purchase plan (for example, equipment type and extension, size) to investigate GaN substrate LED capacity expansion plan. Then we will according to the equipment information to calculate wafer production capacity, chip production capacity, yield after consideration of chip production capacity, and grading after the chip production capacity, we according to different size of the chip demand are compared, which can draw some interesting results, one can answer the title question -- Chinese LED when the capacity to become the first in the world.

The latest research we investigated the LED business as of the fourth quarter of 2012 MOVCD purchasing plan, down 2011 machine units to 870 units, as shown in Figure 1, decreased by 20%, LED manufacturers to push the planned 2011 after installation, mainly because the LED industry price and profit decline in the rate of pile up in excess of requirement, the credit crunch, and facilities and other issues. Backlight market growth is slower than expected, especially in the more sensitive and expensive prices in developing countries and regions, LED TVs and monitors are still high priced products. At the same time, LED lighting market is still very small, and compared to other lighting technologies, LED prices do not have the advantage.

Figure 1 GaN LED MOVCD installed capacity forecast

We will increase the data in 2012 to 583 units, in addition to the delayed installation of equipment in 2011, China has joined the new company in 14. The 14 new companies are in the second quarter of after the emergence of the market is expected to account for 2012 of 20% of the total market value of the company in 2011. Compared with 2011, installed capacity in 2012 was reduced by 33%. Because before deciding to add new equipment, LED companies need to consume the equipment installed in 2011 on the one hand, on the one hand is also waiting for the rise of the lighting market.

To be sure, 2011 and 2012 of China is still the main area of procurement of new equipment. As shown in Figure 2, 2011 GaN MOVCD procurement in China accounted for 78% in 2012 was $73%. Only the Chinese market MOVCD machine installed capacity increased in 2011, while the rest of the region compared with at least 32% decline in 2010. The above situation is in line with the Chinese government's subsidy policy. (the government is about to subsidize the cost of equipment 2/3), and MOVCD as the production of key equipment accounted for about 50% of the new plant equipment capital. With equipment subsidies, some areas in the future to create more jobs and tax revenue, but also to reduce the income tax of LED companies to provide land or reduce lending rates. Assuming that the yield is similar to that of other regions, these policies have made Chinese producers have obvious cost advantages. In addition to the end of 2012, more than 10 Taiwan LED companies will invest and build factories in the mainland, through joint ventures to obtain government subsidies.

Figure 2 GaN LED MOVCD machine shipments by Region

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