This is a set of data revealed at the recently held World Display Industry Conference. The three 50% also outlines the development of the domestic OLED industry.
However, another hidden meaning of the above numbers is that the domestic OLED industry still needs to further stabilize the mid-to-high-end market. At the same time, display product prices have continued to decline in the past two years, and industry supply and demand have experienced certain losses. The weakness of consumer electronics has made the prospects of the display industry less clear.
"The worst moment is often the best start." In response to various doubts in the current industry, Visionox co-president Yan Ruoyuan talked about her point of view. She believes that the OLED industry needs to focus on three key words in the future - growth, innovation and symbiosis.
Regarding growth, Yan Ruoyuan said that since this year, the OLED industry has truly felt that it is continuing to pick up, and new demands have triggered new development opportunities for the industry. According to industry agency forecasts, OLED shipments will exceed 1 billion pieces by 2028, and output value will exceed US$55 billion. In the next five years, it is conservatively estimated to maintain an annual growth rate of about 7%. At the same time, the penetration rate of AMOLED in smartphone applications continues to increase.
The 7% growth rate may seem normal, but there are many high-growth segmented tracks such as folding terminals. Yan Ruoyuan believes that the application of AMOLED in folding terminals has been fully launched. In recent years, major mobile phone manufacturers have launched OLED folding screen mobile phones, and the prices are more affordable. "The growth rate of foldable screen mobile phone shipments this year is expected to reach 37%, and will maintain a high growth rate in the next few years."
In fact, in addition to mobile phones, medium-sized applications such as vehicle displays and laptops have always been regarded as the next growth point for OLED displays. Yan Ruoyuan talked about two new developments. First, Apple announced that all iPad production lines will be equipped with OLED next year. Second, Audi announced that it will use 2.7 million OLEDs as car displays from 2027 to 2030.
"This kind of news continues to verify that OLED is accelerating its penetration in the medium-sized field, and it also makes our practitioners feel more confident." Yan Ruoyuan said. It is predicted that by 2030, the compound annual growth rate of AMOLED shipments in the mid-size field can reach 34%. At the same time, the mid-size market size is expected to reach US$10.5 billion in 2028, with shipments reaching 84 million pieces.
Regarding innovation, Yan Ruoyuan specifically mentioned ViP technology (Visionox intelligent pixelization technology). Through the semiconductor photolithography process and abandoning FMM (fine metal mask), ViP technology achieves more precise AMOLED pixels, eliminating the limitations of traditional OLED technology on display size, resolution and other screen performance. It is an AMOLED mass production upgrade solution with ultra-high performance, full-range size, and agile delivery.
"ViP technology no longer uses FMM, thus getting rid of the constraints in the supply of evaporation machines, masks and raw materials. It is expected to reshape the AMOLED upstream and downstream industry chains and form a new pattern of global industry competition." said Huo Ting, chief investment officer of Visionox.
Visino Chief Brand Officer Yang Shujuan said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times·e Company that we are currently in the AMOLED era, and after the ViP production line is completed and mass-produced, it will enter the AMOLED+ era.
She further explained that ViP is a full-size technology that can cover full product size applications from wearables to TVs, and has played an important role in solving the problems of medium-sized products. "ViP is unique in meeting the needs of high brightness, long life, and power saving for laptops at the same time. By adding Tandem OLED technology, the screen life is increased by six times and the brightness is increased by four times. Compared with the existing screen, the power consumption can be reduced by 38%."
It is worth mentioning that the reason why OLED enters the mobile phone market is because the shipment volume of a mobile phone can range from one million to tens of millions, which can significantly dilute the mold opening costs of tens of millions or even nearly 100 million yuan when customizing OLED screens and reduce OLED costs. Based on this industry logic, if a certain application field cannot reach a certain shipment scale, using OLED screens will not be worth the gain.
"With ViP technology, the minimum order threshold for terminal customized OLED screens will become very low." Yang Shujuan said that currently OLED players are mainly focusing on mobile phones, wearables and medium-sized applications. The changes brought by ViP technology will enable OLED to expand into the smart home field, such as refrigerators, range hoods, etc.; and the smart home market may bring new market growth for OLED.
In interviews with reporters, industry insiders generally believe that OLED is still in a period of rapid growth and is far from finalized. In this process, policy support is indispensable. At the end of July, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on measures to restore and expand consumption, proposing to use new technologies such as ultra-high-definition video, virtual reality, and flexible displays to promote supply-side technological innovation and upgrading of electronic products. In August, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Action Plan for Steady Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry in 2023-2024," proposing work measures to cultivate and expand new growth points, including promoting the expanded application of AMOLED, Micro-LED, etc.
"The development of the display industry at this stage still requires further innovation, which also means that many innovative work will enter no man's land." Talking about how policies can better support the development of the industry, Yang Shujuan said that she hopes to give more resources to companies that want to innovate, can innovate, and dare to innovate. "This is good for the further rapid development of the display industry."
Currently, another area of active innovation in the display industry is Micro-LED. At this World Display Industry Conference, Visionox exhibited its first domestic P0.5 TFT-based frameless 58-inch Micro-LED splicing screen; on September 8, Visionox Micro-LED subsidiary Chenxian Optoelectronics held a groundbreaking ceremony for the world's first TFT-based Micro-LED production line. According to the plan, Chenxian Optoelectronics' TFT-based Micro-LED production line plans to achieve mass production and shipment by the end of 2024, and the products will be the first to be deployed in the field of large-size commercial displays.
This progress is basically consistent with the timeline that reporters learned from other manufacturers. According to relevant domestic manufacturers, after solving technical problems such as mass transfer, Micro-LED is expected to be mass-produced within two to three years.
Micro-LED is currently recognized as the next generation of new display technology. It has high brightness, low power consumption, long life, wide color gamut and other properties. It can be used in large, medium, small and micro-sized products such as large-size commercial displays, high-end TVs, vehicles, wearables, AR/VR, etc. Yan Ruoyuan said that unlike the past model where cost reduction and ecological construction were considered only after mass production of OLED, during the Micro-LED pilot stage, the company had already begun to discuss how to build a Micro-LED industrial ecosystem with global equipment manufacturers and material manufacturers, and cooperated with industry chain companies to develop a number of "domestic first sets" of key equipment. Key materials and equipment have completed multiple rounds of iterations in the factory.
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