Rare earth market has been excessive prosperity? Supply exceeds demand in 2013

Goldman analysts in a recent report predicted that, as Western companies start up new mines now dominate the market competition and China company, may to 2013 rare earth oversupply. This view was quickly recognized by some market participants that the rare earth market has been excessive prosperity".

In 2013, the global rare earth market oversupply? In a new report, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that by 2013, as Western companies compete for new mines to compete with Chinese companies that dominate the market, it is likely that the supply of rare earths will be greater than that of. According to the Wall Street Journal reported on 9, this view was quickly recognized by some market participants that the rare earth market has been excessive prosperity". Of course, hold the opposite view of Australian miners There are plenty of people who, Linus's chief executive Curtis even predicted that, "Chinese will become a net importer of rare earths". China currently supplies about 90% of the world's rare earths.

Goldman Sachs analyst Sanz Wood in the report predicted that the global rare earth supply gap will appear the largest ever in this year may reach 18 thousand and 734 tons, equivalent to 13.2% of the demand, but the gap will continue to shrink, until 2013 2014, oversupply, excess capacity will reach 5860 tons, equivalent to the expected demand 3.2%. He also believes that rare earth prices are approaching the peak, and then there will be a downward trend.

Rare earth is collectively known as the 17 elements, the global rare earth prices rose 4 times in the last year, the first two months of this year, up to 1 times. Among them, for the manufacture of headphones and hybrid electric vehicles and other products of rare earth neodymium, the price from a year ago, about $42 per kilogram rose sharply to more than $283. The key raw material for the production of missiles, samarium, also soared from $18.50 per kilogram last year to more than $146 per kilogram.

Right now, Goldman Sachs rare earth oversupply, said there are many market participants agree. According to the Wall Street Journal reported on 9, these people believe that the current rare earth market boom". The report quoted a rare earth traders in Europe as saying that the rare earth elements such as cerium and lanthanum, there will certainly be oversupply situation. The reasons for this view include: the price is too high, people will immediately start looking for alternatives; with more countries to restore the exploitation of rare earth minerals, the supply will increase significantly.

Currently, the United States is a large-scale increase in California rare earth mining, rare earth production in the United States is expected in 2012 from the current 3% of the world's total of up to 4%, up to 12%. Hitachi Metals Ltd also plans to expand the rare earth mining, South Korea and Burma reached a joint development of rare earth resources in Burma agreement.

However, these actions can significantly increase the global supply of rare earth in the short term, and then reverse the market supply and demand situation? New York Times reported last week, a report said that the next few years, will still be in short supply of rare earth, regardless of smart phones or smart bombs, are inseparable from rare earth elements. Reported that Chinese for their own needs, not only will the international pressure to continue to control the export volume will increase in imports of rare earths, because its China rare earth consumption also increased, and in areas such as Malaysia, the international community exploration work has just started, and will encounter environmental circles of the opposition, which has appeared in Malaysia Kuantan.

Electronic products recycling in addition, TOYOTA and other Japanese companies aspiring the rare-earth refining plan, due to multiple difficulties of technology and business, the progress is far better than imagined smoothly. According to Bloomberg News reported on 5, the United States has proposed the establishment of a member of the rare earth strategic inventory, if the start and lead countries to follow suit, the price of rare earth will soar in the short term. The report also quoted analysts as saying that China cut rare earth exports pushed up the price is only the appearance, its essence is the "rapid growth" demand, although the largest supplier of rare earth Molycorp the United States tried to re establish China does not depend on the rare earth industry chain, and promised to supply 20 thousand tons of rare earth before the end of 2012, new but this may not be able to fill the blank "formed by the soaring demand for rare earth".

In addition, the "Wall Street journal" quoted Linus as saying the CEO Curtis, "Chinese will become a net importer of rare earth elements, this transformation may be similar to the 2009 global coal market and mid 1990s in the oil market, and may make the price rise more sharply". In 2009 China became the net importer of coal for the first time from the traditional coal exporting country. Curtis believes that China's domestic consumption will promote the growth of these resources demand.

China Institute of contemporary international relations, director of the center for economic security research Jiang Yong said that the bullish and bearish rare earth market two views, it is difficult to directly judge, but can be analyzed from the fundamentals. He said that rare earth prices will not be like oil, coal and other commodities as big ups and downs. In addition, although rare earth prices will stimulate production and increase the supply, but this process is not very fast, because with petroleum and coal mining, rare earth has some radiation, on the rare earth mining and storage of high technical requirements. From mining to rare earth into a commodity, there are data that will take about 5 years. In addition, rare earth as a strategic resource, the demand is still rigid, and demand will continue to grow. Currently, the world's rare earth reserves are limited, rare earth futures market is not mature, the lack of speculation in the market, therefore, the supply and demand of rare earth are lack of flexibility, there will be no sharp drop. Rare earth prices in the future there is room to rise.

In addition, Jiang Yong