Multi factor resonance industry warming LED lighting greet the golden period

Since last December, the Shanghai index fell endlessly, this week the index was once again returned to the 1 era, but the market has not been devoid of hot spots, LED is one of the better continuity. In mid December 2013, the United States stopped incandescent news ignited the enthusiasm of the LED sector to do more, but also on the LED industry fundamentals turn for the better. So the LED industry is out of the serious excess capacity impasse, with sustainable growth channels?

Multiple resonance

A stock market in a sustained hot support from two aspects: one is a positive change in the policy side, the industry is the two turn for the better. The LED sector is no exception, somewhat similar to the photovoltaic industry, LED industry is influenced by the policy, the government forced the incandescent lamp to promote the rapid development of industry, opportunities, and government subsidies increased the enthusiasm of enterprises and residents, to the development of LED plays a very important role.

In fact, since 2013, domestic support on the LED industry policies introduced gradually, the national development and Reform Commission and other 6 ministries jointly developed the "planning" semiconductor lighting industry, pointed out that by 2015, 60W more than ordinary incandescent lighting all eliminated, energy-saving lighting industry development goals is LED with an average annual growth rate of output is about 30% tons, in 2015 reached 450 billion yuan (including application of LED lighting products 180 billion yuan). Subsequently, the provinces have also introduced a corresponding subsidy policies, such as the release of the LED recommended product catalog in Guangdong. The gradual implementation of these policies, so that the LED industry began to emerge from the downturn in the years, gradually turn for the better. In addition, according to statistics, 60% of the domestic LED lighting products sold abroad, the main markets in Western Europe and North America, and in December 18th last year, the United States decided to stop selling the most popular sales market for the 40 and 60 watt incandescent lamp, a huge future market space sparked hot pursuit of the capital market.

However, relying solely on the good news, is unable to attract funds to continue to flow into a plate, but can not form a plate effect, which largely depends on the improvement of the fundamentals of the industry. After 2010, due to local policies to encourage and support, LED lead to serious industry overcapacity, related enterprises into a vicious competition, the industry boom continued downward, such as upstream chip market size growth rate dropped from 100% in 2010 to 20% in 2012. However, in 2013, after a fierce price competition, to eliminate a part of backward production capacity, the industry began to shrink the supply side, according to CITIC Securities estimates, the mainland and Taiwan stock MOCVD station about 1600 Taiwan, invalid production capacity of approximately 600 units, 1000 units currently effective capacity of the overall efficiency of the equipment is about 80% sound level.

From the demand side, backlight, lighting and display are three pieces of LED demand, the backlight accounted for the largest, but with the 2013 backlight and lighting needs a downward revision of end plate potential market trillion started, will promote the LED sector began explosive growth in 2014. In addition, the company also confirms the level of demand changes. According to SW tertiary industry classification, LED plate 20 stocks, of which there are 13 stocks in the third quarter of 2013 pre Hi, accounting for 65%, the average growth rate of more than 30%.

Need to tap the market opportunities

From the perspective of market analysis, 2013 TMT section of the great leap forward to let the market structural market funds in order to agree, but with each subdivision plate or expanding market funds chasing high will reduce, especially early Mobile Games and film plate began to increase in the overall market valuation of repair, risk aversion, and withdraw from the new early hot funds in the effort to find value and increase the depression. An interview with reporters, private sources, LED plate had an obvious trend of rising market from the end of 2012, showed fluctuated trend, the whole sector rose behind the TMT sector, from Bankuailundong perspective, investment in each round of the theme of the late capital will take turns to such lift sector stocks, in order to make investors believe that money market effect is obvious, conducive to capital calmly from the early hot smooth cash chips.

However, although the LED industry has a good sign, but we still need to realize that the whole industry is still a state of excess capacity, supply and demand in the end face of the new changes, the scale of the investment opportunities will have a very big difference. This requires us to start from the new changes in the industry level, to tap those who can quickly adapt to and meet the new needs of the company, only the performance of such companies will maintain rapid growth.

Downstream applications more investment value of two categories of companies benefit

From 2013 LED growth rate and future development of the various parts of the industry chain, downstream applications more investment value. According to GLII statistics, in 2013 the application value of 208 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 31%, much higher than the upper and middle reaches of the chip package, the main reason is that the fastest growth rate of the downstream application Chinese is a global production base of the application of LED lighting, Home Furnishing lighting applications into the development period of the outbreak, the rapid growth of the lighting field. According to relevant statistics, in the fourth quarter of last year, the export growth rate of LED lighting products in more than 80% year on year, which is consistent with the phenomenon of Listed Companies in the second half of 2013 to continue to promote the rapid increase in the phenomenon of income.

At present, the driving logic is mainly from two aspects, one is the price of LED lighting products to the market can accept the price, the actual demand growth accelerated; the two is Europe and the United States and other countries prohibit incandescent,