LED oversupply difficult to ease the test of the technology and cost control capabilities

Dramexchange (TrendForce) ledinside research department's research report published recently showed that in 2011 the global high brightness LED output by 2011 at the beginning of the estimated $10 billion 600 million to $9 billion (annual growth rate of only 8%), the main reason lies in the backlight market as expected, the average price plus LED resulted in rapid decline pile up in excess of requirement of LED industry. The company pointed out that the current situation in the short term LED pile up in excess of requirement is still difficult to improve, if the second half of 2011 and the magnitude of decline in value of inventories continued to increase more than expected, do not rule out further under the revised global high brightness LED sales forecast.

Set of states that, despite the 2011 high brightness LED backlight market value is still a slight growth, but to observe from individual applications, LED TV backlight output value of only $1 billion 400 million, compared with a decrease of 18% in 2010. The main reason is that the light guide technology to enhance the use of LED in the TV backlight significantly reduced the number of use. With a 42 inch LCD TV as an example, the 2009 launch of Samsung LED TV, LED backlight use the number as high as 360, but in 2011 the standard model has fallen to about 130, part of the fighter for the market price only need to use 100 pieces of LED, which caused the LED backlight market affected by actual usage.

In addition, poor terminal sales make the price of LED fell too fast, so despite the LED backlight TV penetration continues to grow, but the output is facing recession. In 2012, Korean panel factory will launch LED backlight panel low order to reduce costs and stimulate, although the permeability of LED have the opportunity to further move up, but the number of the use of LED will further decline of about 20~30%.

Various brands of tablet PC panel resolution requirements are getting higher and higher, so in 2011 the number of tablet PCs per tablet LED usage of about 36~42, ranging from the opportunity to further increase in 2012. Although the number of tablet computer sales in 2011 have the opportunity to more than 500 million units, but most of them are Apple's iPad, iPad 2 contribution, and the current LED backlight supply chain Apple mainly by Japanese manufacturers control, industry chain in Taiwan, only individual manufacturers benefit.

And every LED vendor sent and hopes for the lighting industry, also in the case of poor market conditions this year back, become the main sea every LED manufacturers; especially in Japan because the demand for energy-saving power to increase, making LED lighting manufacturers to enter the Japanese lighting supply chain revenue brisk performance.

To Chinese as an example, the recent Chinese out incandescent roadmap China national development and Reform Commission "(Draft)", emphasized from October 1, 2012 onwards, step by step to ban the sale and import of ordinary incandescent lighting (see EE reported: next year China phasing out of incandescent bulbs, LED industry will enter a high growth stage). And in 12th Five-Year about the planning of semiconductor lighting will be published, it is likely that the Chinese government will be through LED standards, energy efficiency indicators, procurement policies and incentives, subsidies, and strive to improve the visibility of LED lighting products. As for Europe, North America, South Korea and Australia and other places, in 2012, there are also relevant policies to disable incandescent bulbs, LED lighting market is gradually profitable.

In 2012, dramexchange believes that demand for deferred terminal market opportunity in 2012~2013 years gradually fermentation, plus the LED lighting products market acceptance generally improved, but also makes the high brightness LED output in 2012 have the opportunity to continue to grow. However, since 2010, various manufacturers crazy MOCVD production capacity caused by the phenomenon of expansion pile up in excess of requirement, the short term is still difficult to solve, estimates the average sales price in 2012 the LED industry still has more than 20% decline, so will test various LED manufacturer's technology to enhance the speed and reduce the cost of capacity.