LED lighting ushered in the third round of growth costs 5 years down by 80%

The new energy is increasingly become the focus of industry and capital market, in order to discuss the industry, promote capital market and industry exchanges, the state securities in September 1st 2011 held the fourth session of the new energy strategy in Chengdu. State Securities researcher Song Jia speech at the meeting.

Song Jia said, LED is about to usher in the third round of general lighting growth cycle. LCD backlight is the main driving force, Universal Lighting era is coming. General lighting market is $70 billion, is 12 times the backlight market, will reach $120 billion by 2020; cost reduction is the key to open the general lighting, LED lighting has the lowest cost, but the cost recovery period for more than 9 years. LED cost recovery period less than 2 ~ 3 years is the outbreak of the lighting market.

The following is the speech record:

Today, we mainly discuss the views of the LED industry. Our main point of view is that the decline in the cost of LED will open the LED general lighting market.

From the perspective of the development of the LED market, the introduction of mobile phones in 2000 to promote the rapid growth rate of LED reached 44%, the market began to saturation in 2005. The second round of growth is mainly due to the application of LED in the backlight field, began in 2007. The third round of growth is mainly the start of the general lighting market, we are concerned about the timing of this market opening.

Backlight market is expected to be saturated after 2014. We believe that this time the node is likely to advance, so that the LED industry to further develop, need to get another breakthrough, this breakthrough is the general lighting market, in 2010, the general lighting market in about 70 billion dollars. LED lighting has the lowest cost, but the cost recovery period of more than nine years. From the composition of the cost of LED lamps, LED mainly includes LED chips, epitaxy, etc., we believe that the cost of LED will follow the following five paths, to 2015 is expected to decline by 86%. The cost of LED decreased by 20% per year, the luminous efficiency and luminous flux of a single package doubled every two months, 2010-2015 LED warm white light-emitting efficiency increased by 135%, the corresponding cost decreased by 57%.

The overall performance of the situation, in fact, the performance is far more than expected, in fact, the LED industry in front of the solar photovoltaic industry is very different. The second way is to improve the yield, but also a key point, the current yield of the main bottleneck lies in the yield of epitaxial film is only about 60%. The third way is to wafer and equipment upgrades, in fact, with the LED chip manufacturing technology and equipment, with the integrated circuit industry is the same, in the IC industry, the wafer size is doubled, the equipment investment increased by 30%-40%, the cost per unit area decreased by 30%-50%. Looking back, now several manufacturers have begun to open 6 inch substrate to replace the 2 inch substrate. The fourth way is to package the scale and technological innovation, because the cost is encapsulated in the LED chip, the proportion accounted for 50%, is currently the bottleneck of cost reduction, because the package links, raw materials accounted for about accounted for more than 80%, so we think that in the whole process of LED chip costs decline. Compared to the traditional "LED discrete light: group MCPCB die LED lamp" path, directly to the bare chip integrated in the MCPCB. The invention is characterized in that a wafer is used as a packaging substrate, a groove structure is processed to form an optical reflector cup, and a through hole technology is adopted to form the conductive circuit of the upper surface and the lower surface. The fifth way is the reversal of supply and demand, the whole industry chain profit compression, in 2010, the upstream substrate manufacturers gross profit margin of more than 50%, the middle reaches of the epitaxial and chip gross margin of more than 40%. Forecast in 2015, LED chip cost from the current $20 /klm down to $2.9 /klm. By the end of 2012, the cold white LED cost recovery period less than 3 years, by the end of 2013, warm white LED small and cost recovery for 3 years, according to the distribution of permeability of 25%, lighting market incremental demand for $10 billion, more than the current $8 billion 250 million.

In the process of transforming the LED market from backlight to general lighting, we believe that the main concern of the company is the leading enterprise in the whole industry chain, and then in the packaging of experienced enterprises.