LED industry to follow Moore's law?

LED lighting substituting traditional fluorescent lamp and incandescent lamp lighting will repeat TV backlight field LED of fluorescent lamp (CCFL) replacement process, can be found in LED relative to the CCFL backlight price difference of the fastest decline period, is the LED backlight penetration had fast rise time period.

Because of the commercial industrial enterprises and more sensitive to electricity costs the government to the enterprise LED lighting substituting traditional fluorescent lamp and incandescent lamp lighting will repeat TV backlight field LED of fluorescent lamp (CCFL) replacement process, can be found in LED relative to the CCFL backlight price difference of the fastest decline period is the rapid rise of LED backlight penetration time. Commercial and industrial enterprises are more sensitive to the cost of electricity, and the government has more stringent requirements for energy conservation and emission reduction.

In the process of rapid decline in the price difference between LED lighting products and traditional lighting products, LED lighting penetration will rise rapidly. In the LED industry, there is a Haitz law proposed by Agilent Co RolandHaitz, is considered Moore law of the LED industry.

Since the commercialization of LED, per lumen cost ($/lm) decreased by about 20% per year, and from the data in recent years, there is a trend to enhance brightness and cost decline accelerated. According to the U.S. Department of energy, the cost of the lumens of white LED package from 25$/klm in 2009, fell to 2$/klm in 2015, the average annual decline in the cost of more than 30%, while the average annual decline of nearly 40%. years 2010-2012 we believe that 2011-2012 will be LED with the traditional lighting price difference time of most rapid decline, LED lighting penetration will produce a leapfrog growth during this period.

According to our estimates, using $/lm as a measure of two times in 2012 about the cost of LED lighting will be reduced to a fluorescent lamp, such as the calculation of the LED relative fluorescent lamp is about 2.5 times, will make life, around 2012 the total cost of LED lighting ahead of fluorescent lighting. Therefore, we believe that large-scale replacement of LED lighting will be launched by the end of 2011, early in 2012, 2011-2012 will be an important investment in the LED lighting industry.

In the LED light source will repeat the same process, LED lighting products in the first place in the commercial and industrial fields, get a good demonstration effect, and then gradually spread to the field of home lighting. At present, the traditional lighting including fluorescent lamps, incandescent lamps, halogen lamps, HID general lighting, each accounted for revenue of 36%, 23%, 16%, 13%. with the incandescent lamp in the disabled, alternative will replace the incandescent lamp, LED lamp for fluorescent lamps for incandescent lamp and fluorescent lamp is synchronized.