LED industry is about to usher in the outbreak of the market

LED manufacturing equipment is a leading provider of AIXTRON CEO Paul Hyland believes that with the rapid decline in the cost of LED, LED lighting to replace traditional lighting time has entered the countdown, the lighting industry is in turn a key crossroads LED.

Recently, AIXTRON released the first half of the financial results. At the press conference, Paul Hyland for outdoor and commercial lighting applications to do the theme of approaching market Flashpoint, the report, he pointed out that the focus of LED lighting has turned to quality and cost.

Paul Hyland pointed out that the development of the LED industry is in a very critical period. Due to the short-term fluctuations in the market and the uncertainty of the Chinese government's MOVCD equipment subsidies, resulting in a decline in sales in the latest quarter AIXTRON. But Paul Hyland optimistic that the order is still constant, the company is still confident that the completion of the annual target.

China MOCVD backlog of orders

Currently, AIXTRON accounted for more than 60% of the MOCVD device market share, is the world's leading supplier of MOCVD equipment. The past two years, due to the Chinese government to implement MOCVD equipment subsidy policy, triggering a domestic MOCVD equipment procurement boom. The size of the national LED manufacturers sprung up, the entire LED production capacity has been driven up. Due to capacity expansion too fast, China LED manufacturers have suspended MOCVD equipment procurement plan. More than 2/3 of AIXTRON's backlog of orders from china.

Paul Hyland pointed out that the Chinese government hopes to have 5 or 6 domestic LED manufacturers with international competitiveness. The first stage, in order to improve the production capacity of LED, many manufacturers are competing to "accept" state financial subsidies for the purchase of equipment. In the LED industry, the investment is certainly able to obtain short-term benefits, but want to stand out in the competition, technology and talent is the key. At present, China is very lack of technology and professionals, so not all LED manufacturers can laugh to the end.

Benefit from the expansion of the production plan of Chinese LED manufacturers, AIXTRON and Veeco, the main rival has received considerable orders from china. Recently, LED market fluctuations, coupled with government subsidies China variable, so even Chinese clear that the government will vigorously promote the development of the LED industry, still can not eliminate AIXTRON and Veeco the two major manufacturers worry. China LED industry as one of the seven key strategic industries. Last month, China's Ministry of science and Technology issued a plan to 2015 LED lighting penetration rate can reach 30%. Although China's initial focus will be to stimulate and meet domestic demand, but the long-term plan will be to become a global leader in the emerging industry competitiveness, and ultimately achieve the export of LED technology.

In Japan and South Korea to promote LED lighting

Due to the March Fukushima earthquake caused a lot of power shortage in Japan, so Japan began to focus on energy-saving technologies. In this context, the use of LED lighting in Japan increased significantly.

Compared to Japan, South Korea's efforts to promote the development of LED industry bigger and stronger. The next two years, the South Korean government to provide $185 million in energy subsidies, while the industry and the entire public sector turned to the use of LED lighting. Samsung and LG these two powerful LED manufacturers will play a crucial role in the development of the Korean LED industry. South Korea has the potential to be the first to complete the popularity of LED lighting. Approaching flashpoint?

Paul Hyland said that the 60W bulb, for example, the key point of price between $15-20. This price is expected to lead to real business needs. According to statistics, some regions of the LED alternative bulb prices have reached the market flashpoint.

A-19 60W LED in different areas of alternative bulb prices

In addition, according to market research, in Korea and Japan, the outbreak is imminent. In South Korea, the average price of the A-19 LED to replace the light bulb is now only $17, $20 in Japan, $39 in the US, and $58 in europe.

In this regard, Paul Hyland said that if there is no deviation in this figure, then South Korea has been within the scope of the outbreak. Samsung and LG two major manufacturers are to provide a range of LED lighting products to the domestic market, while the pursuit of highly competitive pricing strategy. For example, Samsung has launched about $17 of LED bulbs. The price is 50% lower than the same period last year.

In order to accelerate the reduction of manufacturing costs, AIXTRON recently launched the largest capacity of the MOCVD reactor. Its CRIUS II-L can produce 4 inch or 2 inch wafers. The MOCVD reactor, which can produce 6 inch and 8 inch wafers, is still under study.

Now the price of LED is much slower than the speed of Haitz's law. Haitz trend line is expected to LED average sales price decreased by 20% year on year. But in the past year, the average price of 100-120lm/W's LED has fallen by 50%. Moore's law is more suitable for predicting the development of LED industry. Analysts expect prices to fall further in the next third quarters, 5-10%.