LED industry favorable limited left is king

Although the NDRC has officially released the "Chinese phasing out incandescent roadmap", and will be on October 1, 2012, banning the sale and import of 100 watts and above ordinary incandescent lighting, but this does not mean that last year was touted by the capital market will benefit LED.

The high cost of urban and rural residents temporarily unrealistic

At present, the elimination of incandescent bulbs also less than LED, because the current cost is still relatively high LED. China Lighting Association Secretary General Xu Huai said, after China's phasing out incandescent roadmap released, immediately led to the rise in LED shares, I think it is not very rational. "

Xu Huai was held in Beijing in February 8th to replace the old - Qi to eliminate incandescent activities, the press conference made the above statement.

As of the end of 2010, China's efficient lighting products penetration rate has reached 80%, in 2010 the popularity of energy-saving lamps increased by more than 4 percentage points in 2009. In contrast, the popularity of the city to do a better job, there are currently about 1 billion 300 million incandescent lamps in the Chinese market, of which about 1 billion in rural areas. "

Because of the addition of a small number of incandescent lamps are also used, most of the families in rural areas, so that they make good use of a few tens of dollars of LED to replace a few dollars of incandescent lamp, I am afraid there is no financial subsidy is impossible. "Xu Huai thinks.

According to PHILPS (China) Investment Co., Ltd. Ye Ming, deputy director of the Ministry of foreign affairs, China in the LED market application has not been denied in the forefront of the world, is the fastest growing country. Based on this, he believes, as an explosive development of the industry, LED will eventually replace other light sources. "

But some analysts pointed out that China's achievements in the application market is mainly due to the Ten City million program. According to the Ten City million pilot city research statistics, the current pilot projects have been implemented in more than 37 pilot cities of more than 2000, the application of LED lamps more than 4 million 200 thousand.

In this regard, Liu Shiping, Deputy Secretary General of China Lighting Association, said: now 80% of the mainland's street lamp is a high-pressure sodium lamp, its optical efficiency is 120 lumens / watt, its luminous efficiency is high, the development is relatively mature. The LED tried to replace the high-pressure sodium lamp, it requires higher. LED experimental life is 20 thousand -3 million hours, single sodium lamp is a life of 12 thousand hours is sure to be guaranteed. "

According to Liu Shiping introduction, a set of 400W high pressure sodium lamp, even the power supply is not more than 1000 yuan, but a set of high pressure sodium lamp to replace LED to 5000-8000 yuan, or even close to million yuan. Whether this money is paid by the government or enterprises, the cost is too high. Developed areas can digest the cost is good, but if in the less developed areas, the first to start the application from the street light, but the impact of its future marketing. "

Xu Huai also believes that China should focus on the next phase of the promotion of LED for indoor lighting. "A number of indoor lighting varieties of cost-effective, in its life cycle of input and output has gradually tended to balance. Lighting products can not test the government's project, the key depends on the competitiveness of the market, so that there are more applications to be willing to use it. "

But these expectations on the LED market is not slowing down the pace of the relevant listed companies.

Listed enterprises will be eliminated packaging speed

December 13, 2011, poly fly just through the Commission gem issuance examination committee IPO application for review, in December 14th, after the second run million technology sounded the door of the Commission for Discipline Inspection commission.

In December 16, the gem issuance examination committee passed the Riyadh, starting the application of semiconductor. Since then, the application of remote optical and Mao power supply IPO also passed.

It is understood that these companies are about to enter the capital market, poly fly optoelectronics, Wan run technology, rectangular semiconductor business is the main package.

As of the end of 2011, has landed and is about to visit the capital market LED packaging enterprises reached 7, but the market environment is not as good as before. 2011 China LED packaging output value of 32 billion yuan, an increase of only last year was only about $18%, well below the market expectations of more than 30% growth. And in 2010 the mainland packaging output growth of 35%.

At present, there are 1500 packaging companies, with annual sales of more than 100 million yuan in the first camp of more than and 40, sales of 10 million yuan to 100 million yuan between the second camp enterprises less than 400, accounting for about 30%, most of the enterprise sales of less than 10 million yuan. This is the Taiwan package of eight listed companies with an average sales of 1 billion yuan far. "It is not surprising that the listed company will raise investment projects for the main business expansion. Xu Huai said.

However, as the mainland enterprises swarmed, LED industry oversupply, prices fell, the decline in gross margin, the overall slowdown is becoming increasingly prominent.

National Star photoelectric secret party loyalty, said: every year in October ~12 month is the peak season for home appliance sales, but last year, but suffered a busy season. According to reports, the National Star optoelectronic products gross profit margin has dropped from 32% in 2010 to about $20% in 2011.

"In 2011, there are many LED packaging companies desperately struggling, but in 2012 entered the period of excess phase, some enterprises will shuffle eliminated. Dang Jianzhong said.