Interpretation of the relationship between MOCVD and LED industry development

MOCVD equipment is the key equipment of the production of LED epitaxial wafers, the reaction with the market demand to adjust to changes in the global distribution and application field, can help us to understand the current situation of the development of the global LED industry and to predict the future.

MOCVD surge

Since 2010, China's rapid growth in the number of MOCVD purchases. The 2009 global shipments 228 units, of which China, accounted for only 12%, South Korea 42%, Taiwan 35%; 2010 global shipments to 800 units, China, rose to 32%, South Korea and Taiwan were 33% and 26%, according to Veeco estimates, 2011 MOCVD shipments of 850-1100 Taiwan, mainland China will occupy 60% share of South Korea. Further decreased to 10%, 23% in Taiwan. Global 2011-2015 shipments for 4000-7000 units.

LED backlight TV penetration

LED vendors actively expand production capacity, mainly in the development trend of LED large-size backlight applications and lighting applications. At the end of the two quarter of 2010, South Korea's purchases of MOCVD slowed, and in the fourth quarter, nearly of MOCVD was bought by LED makers in China, while South Korea fell to $5%. This shows that the backlight demand once stagflation, and South Korea to buy MOCVD used for the production of backlight LED, this is a regional problem stage. However, in the LED TV inventory is less, 2011 Samsung and LG LED TV shipments will increase to more than 6, and the proportion of strengthening LED lighting product line and other factors, the second half of 2011 South Korean LED manufacturers for the MOCVD demand will gradually warming up. Data from Veeco show that in 2010 a total of 700 sets of MOCVD backlight LED production, in 2011 the global LED backlight TV penetration is expected to exceed more than 50%, and the latest in late 2013 to reach 80% in 2015 to achieve market penetration of 100%.

LED lighting will be the driving force in the future market

In 2010, about 70% of the world's new MOCVD was used for LED backlight, but the proportion of the total volume of the process began to rise, while lighting applications continue to rise, and this momentum will accelerate. Backlight is relatively mature, lighting has just started, the key is whether the demand will suddenly enlarge. With the development of disabled, banned incandescent lamp is implemented, the earthquake in Japan, to stimulate people's awareness of environmental protection promotion and other factors, there are signs ahead of the arrival of LED lighting. Lighting will be the driving force of the future market. The next 5 years, LED lighting chip demand growth rate is expected to reach 68%, after the industrial and commercial, residential and outdoor will be in a leading position, market share in 2015 may be 40% residential, 23% commercial outdoor, 22% industry, 15%. In one or two years, the total cost of LED can beat fluorescent lamp. If China's product quality, competitive price advantage, there will be an increase in exports.

LED 2011 total output value of billions of dollars.

According to the The Information Network based on reducing production costs in the market observation and analysis, LED market will be explosive growth. It is predicted that the high brightness LED shipments in 2011 will be less than 100 billion in 2010 on the basis of growth to about 135 billion. Another backlight LED will grow from 20 billion in 2010 to 30 billion. Therefore, in 2011 the total shipments of LED will grow from 120 billion in 2010 to 165 billion, an increase of more than 40%, and by the year of 2013, LED chip shipments will reach in 2010 of the times of two. Overall, the 2011 LED market will continue to grow in the strength of the growth in 2010, to maintain the upward pattern. IMS Research estimates, in 2011 GaN LED shipments will reach 62 billion, the total output from $8 billion in 2010 jumped to $10 billion 800 million, for the first time exceeded 10 billion mark.

LED is not now down inflection point

The development trend of the MOCVD manufacturers have a revenue predictability to the LED industry outlook, MOCVD Aixtron and Veeco companies in early 2011 released 2011 annual financial forecast, Aixtron forecast 2011 revenue will reach 11.2~12.6 billion, compared with 2010 growth of 12~15%. Veeco expects 2011 annual revenue will exceed $1 billion, better than the $930 million in 2010 performance. Veeco Global CEO John R. says Mr PeELer after rapid warming in 2010, MOCVD short-term or excessive supply phenomenon, but after a short rest after the market will continue to grow, as the development of semiconductor has its ups and downs, LED development also will have strong growth and decline cycle. Rise in the process of decline is a normal phenomenon, but the inflection point has not yet appeared.