From the Chinese and foreign code analysis: Chinese LED lighting market is going to mature

Usually people talk about the LED industry, from upstream to downstream. However, with the maturity of LED industry, from upstream of the technological progress determines the new logic of the old logic downstream market application possibility gradually let demand fluctuations in the downstream market around the upper reaches of the ups and downs of the. Therefore, this paper decided in accordance with the downstream to the upstream sequence, some phenomena to sort out the first half of 2015 since the industry what happened, in order to discuss the relative complexity of the industry, better coherence, also more in line with the internal logic of this industry.

China LED lighting exports stall

Now the 2 quarter is almost over, and the past two years is different, we did not wait for a full swing explosive growth. On the contrary, whether it is from the export data, or monthly data released by the Taiwan LED companies, compared to the same period last year, there was a substantial decline. Especially LED lighting products export, LEDinside usually refers to the export trend 94054090 to approximate the observation of LED lighting products, the index in 2015 March years the first year-on-year decline, decline rate reached 16%, April data slightly better, but it is not good to go.

Is this an accidental phenomenon? I'm afraid not, in fact, more time to observe the data year on year, in 2013, with the rapid outbreak of the LED industry, exports is quite a boom, growth has been on the rise. From the beginning of the second half of 2014, year-on-year growth rate is declining, export performance in the one or two quarter of this year, but is a continuation of this trend. As to when to turn, remains to be observed and confirmed.

What are the reasons for this decline?

LEDinside analysis from two aspects of external and internal factors:

External: insufficient demand

External one: RMB appreciation of major currencies in 1 years, the surge in export pressure, lack of external demand

Over the past year, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has been maintained at a relatively stable level, only concerned about the dollar against the RMB exchange rate does not seem to appreciate the trend of RMB appreciation. However, over the past year is a worldwide dollar super strong a period of time, in fact, because the dollar is relatively large currency in other major economies of the appreciation of RMB equivalent to other major currencies are passive big appreciation, so in other markets except the dollar zone, China export enterprises have suffered severe price pressure.

There are 2 meanings: on the one hand, a strong yuan will force LED lighting export enterprises in the international competition, can no longer rely on the cost advantage, as in the past. On the other hand, too strong to allow the yuan, including LED lighting industry, including China's manufacturing industry is facing unprecedented pressure and challenges, a moderate devaluation imminent.

Two external factors: the real estate market downturn and fiscal contraction, weak domestic demand

This year, the Chinese government's fiscal contraction, the expenditure of public lighting compared to the past, has been greatly reduced. In the past played an important role in stimulating the role of indoor lighting real estate market, it seems to enter the inflection point of growth. According to the National Bureau of statistics data show that China's real estate market construction area is still growing, but the growth rate continued to decline, the future of the potential indoor lighting market is greatly limited. More obvious is the area of commercial housing sales, the growth rate has been maintained at a negative value, which demand for home lighting also constitutes a negative impact.

Internal: LED lighting industry is entering the stage of maturity

It is these two factors led to weak demand, this is reminiscent of the industry in 2012 when the situation in 2012, LED industry is facing an unprecedented crisis, a large number of enterprises lack of capacity utilization, the industry is in a serious oversupply situation, several LED enterprises can not go bankrupt. However, by the two quarter of 2013, the outbreak of LED lighting demand contributed to a sudden reversal of the drama of the industry. Will this be the same?

LEDinside was in early 2013 that predicted that LED industry in 2012 but fell into the gap, in 2013 will enter the tornado, crossing the chasm, popular to say that the air came to sit. (related links: LEDinside view: in 2013 the global LED industry has the opportunity to cross the gap)

By the second half of 2013, LEDinside issued a document, said, LED lighting to the air outlet was confirmed, that is, by the LED bulb lamp set off to replace the tide of home lighting market. (related: LEDinside:LED bulb blowing tornado, Home Furnishing stores into the eye of the storm)

For the last 2 years LED bulb replacement tide let leedarson, wood Linsen, companies such as FSL lighting market talent shows itself replaced on the LED.

But this time, it may not be the same.

"Divide" phenomenon from the United States science and Technology Industry Research Master Mr. Jafari Moore's book "across the gap". In the book, Moore describes a phenomenon in the technology industry: different from the traditional industrial life cycle, in the technology industry, there is a "gap" phenomenon. Gap - second stage the courage to try new things from the driving industry in different stages of the life cycle needs of the crowd, and the third stage of pragmatic - inner character on the great conflict.

The courage to try something new in a product, may