Blindly follow the trend of the LED market is expected to overestimate the enterprise keep going by painstaking effort

Recently, the reporter came to Foshan in the South China Sea Western Union Village Industrial Zone, with the help of passers-by guidance to find handsome bright hardware products factory, but the factory door has been locked, the original "Foshan handsome bright hardware products factory" brand also disappeared. Through the window, you can see the empty workshop, the paper and cardboard boxes scattered. Only scattered in the two or three LED on the windowsill and die down, it seems that this was a LED lamp factory.

I heard that the order of the LED lamp was canceled. Did not expect the factory owner so fast on foot, the arrears of the supplier had to move out of plant equipment to reduce losses. "An employee said.

High market expectations, and ultimately let the domestic LED bubble in the second half of 2011 gradually shattered. LED backlight and LED lighting market is the main cause of the two domestic LED investment boom. Ruifeng photoelectric chairman Gong Weibin said that the industry had expected, LED TV explosive growth, the market size will increase 5 times LED. The actual situation is that, despite this year's LED TV penetration has exceeded 40%, but with the maturity of technology and change, so that the absolute number of LED backlight chip has not doubled.

Reporters learned from a number of LED companies, originally expected this year, the domestic LED lighting market penetration will rise to 6%, but the fact is less than 1%. The reality of the LED terminal application market, and before the madness of LED investment into irreconcilable contradictions.

Industry reshuffle

In September, has announced a $2 billion 500 million purchase of 500 sets of MOCVD equipment (LED wafer production equipment) the GCL photoelectric suddenly stopped in Zhangjiagang LED epitaxial chip project, kicked off the LED excess capacity out of the market competition.

Conservative estimates, the number of LED companies closed this year has exceeded 10%. Among them, the packaging enterprises have more than 100, lighting enterprises have 300, most of them are small businesses. "Zhang Xiaofei Dean of Engineering Industry Research Institute said that if the number of domestic enterprises in accordance with the beginning of LED planning MOCVD count down capacity, is about 10 times more than the market demand now, and now the domestic production capacity of MOCVD is about 4 times the current market demand, overcapacity will lead the industry reshuffle.

Wuhu, Yangzhou and other places have introduced preferential measures for the development of LED, especially high MOCVD equipment subsidies, so that the influx of capital and the expansion of LED companies are full of blindness and opportunistic color. In the two or three quarter of this year, with the release of MOCVD production capacity, on the contrary, poor downstream shipments, naturally led to a huge inventory of LED companies.

In mid November, the domestic LED enterprises in Sanan Optoelectronics (600703.SH) suddenly announced a change at the top, one of the reasons is that severe inventory accumulation. Sanan optoelectronics announced this year quarterly data show that in the third quarter of an optoelectronic inventory of 310 million yuan from the beginning, quickly soared to 933 million yuan.

In accordance with the beginning of the upper reaches of the LED announced the investment plan, LED upstream production capacity may exceed 3 years ahead of overdraft market growth needs. Jiangxi crystal and lighting company chairman Wang Min said that at present most of the upstream manufacturers LED production capacity of at least discontinued, and even some of the production of 50%; and LED packaging and application of the lower and middle reaches of the enterprise generally started insufficient.

However, the excess is not only reflected in the upstream capacity of LED, as well as LED downstream application market.

A number of LED lighting business at the beginning of the year or years have said, because of the rare earth fluorescent powder and prices rose, led directly to the rise in the price of energy-saving lamps, LED lighting to replace energy-saving lamps as possible, the overseas market and domestic market may appear explosive growth.

In fact, due to the economic downturn in Europe and the United States, in October this year, most of the Canton Fair LED lighting companies did not get the expected orders. Domestic LED lighting market is mainly concentrated in government procurement, some senior hotels, office buildings, etc.. LED lighting in the domestic market penetration of less than 1%, there is no real access to people's homes. Said Zhang Yajun, managing director of Jihua optical. Gong Weibin pointed out 8 yuan, 2 yuan of energy-saving lamps to replace incandescent light for more than 10 years of time, let the LED lamp 50 yuan to replace the incandescent lamp 2 yuan is just a dream, consumers will only wait for prices to decline further.

The general manager of the LED display manufacturers Dongguan Kun Shuo company Wang Shuixian said, a lot of LED application in enterprise expansion strategy is to overall project investment plan 10%~30% LED production project, the local government to want money, and most of its orders from the government or project.

Wait for tomorrow

In the domestic LED industry shrouded in bubble crisis, the elimination of incandescent figure and early next year may be issued 8 billion yuan LED lighting subsidy measures, and let LED industry produce new market expectations, Sanan optoelectronics, REFOND, nationstar, LED shares of Listed Companies in November 4th prices were trading.

However, in accordance with the plan for the elimination of incandescent lamp, from now to 2012 for the transition period, by October 2012, the first is 100 watts and more incandescent into the elimination phase, two years after the elimination of more than 60 watts and incandescent lamps. A LED lighting executives pointed out that now the family basically uses the fluorescent lamp, rarely used 60 watt incandescent lamp, so the elimination of incandescent lighting to promote the development of LED lighting, is an illusion of the LED market is expected.

But for the capital is about LED upstream companies, there is no better than expected market. The reason is that MOCVD equipment downtime losses are great. Wang Lianghai, vice president of the same side, said that if the MOCVD a day out of two furnaces, the cost of the 1 day is $10 thousand, a month is $300 thousand, but it can not easily stop