Analysis on the substantial development opportunity of China's LED lighting industry

In Europe and the United States have issued the elimination of incandescent plan, incandescent lamp China market delisting also entered the countdown.

In November 4th, the national development and Reform Commission have jointly announced, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of customs and the State Administration for Industry and commerce, the State Quality Inspection Administration issued a "gradual ban on the import and sale of ordinary incandescent lighting notice" (hereinafter referred to as the "notice"), from October 1, 2012, according to the size of the power gradually ban the import and sale of incandescent lamps for general lighting.

This was considered to be a LED application lighting - the future is expected to replace the traditional large-scale lighting industry a major positive. This news directly affected, LED stocks by the market stir, or also to the concept of plate head. Among them, the production of LED lighting products Lehman photoelectric (300162.SZ) is a few daily limit.

At the same time, the LED industry will usher in a huge development opportunities began to flood the interpretation of the market, but the reality may not be the case. Introduction of the roadmap for the introduction of incandescent lighting, LED industry brought substantial opportunities, has been exaggerated.

According to the aforementioned ministries "notice" rules, China phasing out incandescent roadmap is divided into five stages, the first step is to ban the import and sale of 100 watts and above ordinary incandescent lighting, but it will begin from October 1, 2012, there are nearly a year ago.

More than that, according to the reporter, the current market of 100 watt incandescent lamp application is limited, mainly concentrated in a small number of rural areas, industrial and mining sites and other public areas. "In fact, a limited number of incandescent lamps in the use of 100. This part of the market price sensitivity is higher, the short-term is unlikely to accept LED lighting products such high prices. "LED lighting manufacturers, lighting Shenzhen expo-plast chairman Feng Jun believes that the substitution effect of LED lighting for 100 watt incandescent lamp market is very small.

Data from industry organizations show that the current downstream lighting applications in LED, 70% of the market in the field of outdoor LED lighting, most of which are municipal engineering. As a semiconductor lighting technology, LED lighting project price is high, so in the early stages of the market, often need government investment to drive demand.

But on the other side of the reality, according to our investigation, it is because the current LED outdoor lighting market is too dependent on Municipal Engineering, which led to the current face many difficulties. LED street lamp project, for example, the reporter interviewed a number of LED Lighting Companies in the Pearl River Delta, said: currently on the market 80% of the LED street lamp project at a loss. "

In the LED lamp production in Shenzhen Huaye group a senior told reporters, energy-saving projects for LED municipal engineering, its operation is often the local government "number one" project, "because of the long periods of the implementation of LED Street project, and leadership change projects tend to bring a certain degree of uncertainty. A number of LED Street business person in charge of this newspaper reflected in the LED street lamp project, often suffered difficulties in the collection.

In this context, EMC model is widely used in LED street lamp project. The so-called EMC contract energy management, is a new type of market-oriented energy saving mechanism, its essence is to reduce the cost of energy to pay the full cost of energy saving projects. EMC model, the buyer does not pay any additional costs, you can "zero cost" to replace the new energy-saving equipment.

However, according to the reporter survey, subject to multiple factors, China's LED lighting market, EMC model just looks beautiful". Because the EMC model is the use of electricity savings savings, installment payment project construction costs. The project cycle is often longer than the general project. Aforementioned Hua Ye Group executives believe that this is greater pressure on LED corporate funds to occupy.

Another dilemma is, according to the EMC model, the original street energy consumption is higher, electricity is more expensive, the cost savings amount is high, with the offset LED construction project more funds. But the reality is that China's electricity price is low, which also allows the construction cycle of the EMC project is further elongated. Aforementioned Hua Ye Group executives bluntly.

According to the reporter in the Pearl River Delta area of LED lighting enterprises to understand, under the influence of multiple adverse factors, the current LED lighting companies can be described as difficult. From the Shenzhen municipal semiconductor lighting industry development association, public information shows that one of the LED companies in Shenzhen about 1300, this year, Shenzhen has been quietly closed down or liquidation of more than and 80 LED companies. Among them, LED lighting company chairman Shenzhen junduoli lighting Mao Guojun was owed 80 million was "missing", this caused no small shock in Shenzhen industry.

Published by the association should be conservative figures, this year's collapse of LED companies in Shenzhen alone at least more than one hundred. "Special lighting chairman Feng Jun told the newspaper, in the street lamp industry dilemma LED currently accounts for a major market with the background to interior LED lighting a large number of enterprises started.

It is understood, including Shenzhen Huaye group, Dongguan KingSun once the main LED street lamp enterprises, are beginning to extend to LED indoor lighting business. "Indoor projects are different from municipal engineering, which are more sensitive to price. Feng Jun believes that although this year, the price of LED lighting products generally declined by about 30%, but from the acceptance of large-scale commercial market, there is still a big gap.

In contrast, mainly in the rural areas of the incandescent lamp replacement market, price affordability is weaker. The elimination of incandescent roadmap announced for the LED industry is more favorable policy oriented level