The expectation that "the new iPhone is expected to use sapphire screen for the first time and will become the most widely used new material starting in 2014" has been gradually recognized by the market, but the market still ignores the arrival of a major cycle: the launch of the LED lighting major cycle will drive the sapphire industry to usher in a new round of prosperity cycle before the widespread application of consumer electronics. Sapphire will become a new material application throughout the mainstream electronics and high-prosperity sub-sectors, and the investment opportunities are the most anticipated.
LED is still the first demand driver in the sapphire industry and will benefit from the launch of the LED lighting cycle and usher in a new boom cycle. The demand for LED substrates accounts for 80% of sapphire applications, and the LED boom is basically in sync with the sapphire cycle. In 2014, the LED lighting cycle will start, and the supply and demand pattern will return to the peak of the boom in 2010. It is expected that sapphire prices will continue to rise in 2014, entering a boom cycle.
Resonating with LED lighting, the peak season is about to come, and price increases are expected to be stronger. Industry chain research shows that the price of 2-inch (per millimeter) sapphire crystal ingots has increased from US$3.5 at the beginning of the year to US$4, and that of 4-inch sapphire crystal ingots has increased from US$12.50 at the beginning of the year to US$15. March will usher in the traditional LED peak season. Against the background of continued high capacity utilization, prices are expected to continue to rise in the future, with a quarterly increase of about 10%-20%. It is expected that Sapphire's gross profit margin is expected to reach more than 40% (about 20%+ in 2013).
Technological progress has driven the sapphire supply and demand pattern to be better than market expectations. Technological progress has promoted the rapid increase in the size of LED substrates. It is expected that the proportion of LED substrates above 4 inches will be close to 70% in 2014. The consumption of large-size LED substrates will rapidly increase the demand for large-cavity bubble-crystallization crystal growth furnaces. However, the barriers to crystal growth for large-cavity crystals are high, and the high prosperity is expected to last at least two years.
We are optimistic about the sapphire cycle. It is expected that LED will take the lead in the first half of the year, and consumer electronics will take over in the second half of the year, ushering in a greater market.
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